I'm backing Arizona in the big game. Let's get to the point, the real heart and soul of why I'm taking the points with the Cardinals. They are a long-time doormat, a joke among the league for many years. They believe in their coaches and won't be intimidated. In fact, I love them in the underdog role given their history. Don't discount what their history and togetherness means when it comes to motivation and performance. That doesn't show up in the numbers and the talking heads on TV don't put enough value on this. They won't be able to see past the Pittsburgh D. Keep in mind they were also dogs vs Atlanta, Carolina, and Philly headed into this one and "shocked" the public in each game. This was supposed to be "the worst playoff team in NFL history". You know what I think of this team because we've picked up 2 solid wins with them in the playoffs and the same things apply. The fact is they're undervaled because of a slide in the 2nd half of the season which is understandable given their huge lead in the division. With a solid OL that has played together all year, a top-flight QB playing at the top of his game, a great group of receivers, and an improved D they have a punchers chance against anyone. That includes the Steelers and that terrific D. Remember what they did in the 1st half of the Carolina and Philly games to the opposing defenses, defenses that were playing at high levels. Arizona proved to be too much, especially Warner who knows how to read D's and play in big games. Also remember that in the Steelers last 4 games, Tennesee put up 31 and San Diego put up 24. They are not very good but not invincible and Arizona has scored 30+ in 3 straight playoff games this year. The Steeler offense isn't going to dominate the Cardinals. Arizona is much improved vs the run down the stretch and they can put pressure on the QB and force turnovers. If Arizona plays well offensively, Pittsburgh is not going to have a cake-walk keeping pace. Then you get to the coaching staffs and I really like the knowledge the Arizona staff has when it comes to Pittsburgh. Alot of ex-Steeler coaches that have 2 weeks to figure out how to put all those little things to use. I won't go into alot of detail, just know a significant edge is there. So Arizona was a joke for years and maybe the Arizona coaches know some stuff but it still doesn't mean much to you? C'mon, we're talking Pittsburgh here. Well, think back to 2002 when the longtime doormat Bucs led by ex-Raider coach Gruden faced off against favored Oakland. The Bucs won outright by 27 and delivered us a solid win that day. But you know what I remember? The players talking afterward about the motivation they had after being a bad team for so long and the edge the former Raider coach game them. Sound similar to what we have here? It does to me. That's the soul of this game. Add that Super Bowl it all underdogs have performed extremely well this decade and we're catching +7 on a neutral field. That's a big edge and could easily come into play. I'm taking Arizona for a 4* Regular Play plus I'm laying an extra 1/2* on Ariona to win outright on the +220 moneyline. Enjoy the game and check the site on the weekend for additional prop wagers.

Weather won't be prohibitive and there's no shortage of ways teams can combine for more than 34 points, even with exceptional defences. Championship round games have rarely finished with less than 34 as both teams do everything possible for 60 minutes to make it to the big game. Big time players stepping up plus big mistakes with added pressure by others, much like Super Bowls. The defenses should make big plays on both sides but that could very easily easily lead to short fields for the offences. Pittsburgh's history of home Overs in recent years also is favorable. Playing the odds, I think that 6 out of 10 times this kind of matchup and situation would produce higher than 34 points. Play Over 34 for a 3* Regular Play.

I'm back on Baltimore again. They're 11-2 SU and ATS since Flacco began to get some games under his belt and I like the way he handles pressure. The Baltimore D gives them a chance to win any game outright and they played Pittsburgh down to the wire in both meetings this season. They may have been fortunate to get turnovers versus Tennessee but give them full marks for forcing them. Pittsburgh got blown out recently by that same Tennessee squad and Baltimore will not be intimidated by the Steelers. Plus I think Baltimore will be the hungrier team with Pittsburgh winning it all recently. Like I've mentioned earlier in the playoffs, Baltimore is my Super Bowl darkhorse and I still feel that way. I'll take the 6 points and an outright upset would not shock me. Take Baltimore +6 for a 3* Regular Play.

Baltimore is not a good offensive team and will rely heavily on their running game to take the pressure off their rookie QB. Definitely a tough environment for the Baltimore offence to play. This is the same passing attack that threw for less than 130 yards vs defensively challenged Cincy and Cleveland. Offensively the Steelers have injures and pass protection problems. Their big play ability has been limited as a result. Missing Willie Parker is also a setback and the Baltimore D has been playing very well as a group. They've thrived on Monday night in the past and I'm expecting Ray Lewis to have them fired up tonite. The small number is a concern but having it above the important number 34 helps. Lots can always happen turnover wise to blow up an Under play on a low total but I expect a smashmouth game that would stay under the number 6 or 7 times out of 10 even factoring in those types of breaks. Past meetings have seen more points than expected but these teams are quite different going into tonite and I'm definitely not a supporter of trend handicapping. Play Under 34.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

I see alot of touts spouting off about the Week 13 48-20 drubbing the Eagles hung on the Cardinals. So let's start there. To put it in perspective, the Eagles had an extreme motivational edge. They were off a tie vs the lowly Bengals followed by a blowout loss vs Baltimore in the McNabb "benching" game. Arizona had all but formally clinched their division and no shock that they came out flat on the road, hammered by the talented and pissed off Eagles. I'm not putting much stock in that game. Philly has played well and deserves to be here. But the Cards are being underestimated again. We picked up a win with them vs the Falcons but last week I passed on them as big road dogs vs a quality Carolina squad. Let me tell you, that was one of the most impressive performances I've seen from a team in that kind of position, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I've seen enough to know they should not be home underdogs of more than a FG, especially with Boldin looking better to contribute this week. Arizona has been a longtime doormat, very similar to the Bucanneers when they shockingly won it all in 2002. Add that the Cards were being touted by some as the "worst team to ever make the NFL playoffs". The players commented on that. Pride and motivation can add up to very strong performances and has again in this case. Being at home definitely will add fuel to the fire. Playing with confidence, defensive improvements, and a veteran QB playing at a high level the Cards have a puncher's chance vs anyone right now. I'll take more than a FG with the home dog Cardinals. Take Arizona +3.5 for a 3* Regular play.

I'm backing Philly. They've been in must win games for almost 2 months now and are playing their best football of the season. They've gotten healthier and will have confidence as a result of their win in NY back in early December. They dominated that game and getting more than a FG here is a big advantage. Two big things I like is Philly's recent success stopping the run and the fact they'll be the hungrier team. The Giants won it all last year while then Eagles have gotten a sniff in recent years but couldn't finish the job. It's hard to have a motivational edge at this time of year but I see the Eagles being hungrier and digging deeper. I smell a potential upset and I'll grab the points. Take Philadelphia +4 for a 4* Regular Play.

Like I noted last week, Baltimore is my Super Bowl darkhorse and they are built to win in the playoffs. Excellent defense, a solid running game, and the attitude of a very dangerous team. Give the Titans credit for their record but I feel overall Baltimore is the better team and they have a greater amount of momentum. Tennessee lost their shine down the stretch and we're outgained by both Houston and Tennessee in their last 2 meaningful games. I get the feeling teams have learned how to attck their offense. Baltimore is now 10-2 SU and ATS and even though they lost in Tennessee by 3 early in the season, Flacco has improved greatly since then and they outgained the Titans by a significant margin, especially in the running game. That game will give them the confidence to know they can win here. I expect a close game that the Ravens win outright. Take Baltimore +3 for a 4* Regular Play.

The Philly D is the reason they're here and they've played extremely well down the stretch. They faced good offenses and proved they can hold up vs the run. That's very important here. The Minnesota D has also played well down the stretch and will get a boost from the home crowd. The Philly offense has alot of quality players but the yardage generated has been far from impressive. You know that Minnesota will want to pound the rock on the ground if possible and limit turnovers. I can see a game where neither offense pushes each other on the scoreboard and 41 is a very key number. Lots of ways to cash this one. Play Under 41 for a 3* Regular Play.

Baltimore comes into the playoffs winning 5 of their last 6 (one close loss to Pittsburgh). Flacco's quick development has led to a well balanced offense and it's a dangerous combination with their killer defense. It's no surprise that they're on a 9-2 run considering Flacco's quick learning and a rushing attack that has produced 110+ yards on the ground in EVERY ONE of those games. That's impressive and they're built for playoff football. As I mentioned in the Week 17 pick on Baltimore, they are the dark horse of the playoffs to me. They are fundamentally very solid and have upside to break games open. Miami has impressed me as well and it's no surprise they're in the playoffs winning 9 of 10. But they haven't dominated opponents like Baltimore has, Pennington doesn't have the big cannon to stretch the field as much as some QBs, and they've shown vulnerabilities on defense vs the run and pass. As a general rule I'm not a fan of away favorites but I'll lay -3 with a team I think has a legitimate shot to make it to the Super Bowl. Take Baltimore -3 for a 4* Regular Play.

I'm on Arizona. They struggled late in the year but we can't be totally shocked considering they wrapped up their division extremely early and then ran into very motivated opponents later in the season fighting for their own playoff lives (New England, Minnesota, Philly, etc). In their finale, they hammered Seattle to help re-gain confidence and threw for almost 350 yards. That was a game where you could rely on their motivation unlike those other late season games. Teams that haven't been to the playoffs for many years do exceptionally well in the wildcard round. It's hard to imagine a motivational edge but after being kicked around form so many years they come out firing. Arizona has been an underachieving mess for MANY years. I expect a great atmosphere at home today and that emotional edge. During many similar games in the past, these longtime losers have consistently gotten the job done vs quality opponents. Atlanta has put together a terrific season and I like their team. This play centers around the positives for Arizona. But keep in mind they've had the hardest time this year vs good passing teams and they were only a .500 team on the road. Warner will be highly motivated and he's proven he can handle playoff pressure. I won't be surprised if Ryan handles the pressure but he's an unknown and could underachieve. In the end I expect Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald and the rest of the Arizona offense to make the difference and get the home playoff win these fans have been waiting a long time for. Take Arizona for a 4* Regular Play.

I don't take many favorites and double-digit favs are extremely rare for me. Here's why I'm recommending the Ravens. To me, they are a playoff quality team and they will be highly motivated knowing if they win, they're in. Personally, I think this could be the dark-horse of the 2008 playoffs with a killer D and capable offense. Baltimore is 8-2 SU & ATS their last 10 and Flacco getting more experience is a big reason following their 2-3 start. I think they cover the big number because their D can be dominant at home and the atmosphere will be nuts. Offensively they've scored 30+ in 3 of their last 5 and have won by 14+ in 6 of their last 10. The Jags D has been well below average and have allowed 30+ in 3 of their last 5. The potential is there for a lopsided win. Take Baltimore -11 for a 3* Regular Play.

Washington is off a huge home win vs the rival Eagles but also found out they're out of the playoff race. This is a big letdown spot because of last week's win and San Fran is playing hard for Singletary since he took over. Last game at home, I expect San Fran to have a significant edge. The favorable line move under -3 is the icing on the cake. Take San Francisco -2.5 for a 4* Regular Play.

Another rare big fav for me but Oakland's best defender CB Nnamdi Asomugha is out, they're traveling across country to play in the early time slot, they're a bad team off a rare win, and Tampa is highly motivated. I think the oddsmakers are teasing bettors onto Oakland considering their last game and Tampa's recent slide. I could see Tampa winning by 24+. Take Tampa Bay -11 for a 3* Regular Play.

Far from a meaningless game for the Bills. They'd love to slay the dragon on their home field and last week's win vs Denver will give them confidence. Edwards gives them a chance offensively and you have to take note of the reverse line move. It opens at NE -6, roughly 80% of individual bets come in on the Pats, and the line moves to -5.5. Hmmm. See this movie before with sharps on one side and the public on the other. The kicker on top of this? Crazy winds in Buffalo today. That definitely evens the teams out and favors the dogs, especiall;y considering their styles of play. Take Buffalo +5.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

I'm backing Detroit to put up a fight and cover. Last week we lost with them in a game that got out of control and snowballed. I'll give them credit for not making excuses but info came out Sunday that quite a few players including Orlovsky were hammered by a nasty flu bug. I wonder if that played a role once they fell behind considering they had fought hard and covered vs Minesota and Indy the 2 previous weeks. It could also mean a better effort this week. I do expect their best effort Sunday facing the infamous 0-16. If they were a fractured team with no talent I wouldn't touch them. But this isn't a divided team, just a losing one. They've shown they have some talent when they have their heads screwed on straight (especially on offense and their kicking game) and I expect Orlovsky to play well. They talk about the team not winning in Green Bay since 1991 or whatever it is. Who cares? Anyone that thinks what happened between around 1991-2004 is clueless. Actually, sportsbooks LOVE these types of deep thinkers because they tend to lose alot of cash. Let's not worry about the fact not a single player or coach was on either roster from those 90's teams. Actually, there's your quality control check. If you see any handicapper say that's part of their rationale for picking a winner in this game, you know they're a joke. Guaranteed some will and also charge a pretty penny for this rocket-scientist-like insight. Green Bay has lost some close ones and they're better than they're 5-10 record. They definitely won't want to lose this one. But let's keep in mind this is a team that has lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8. You want to lay double-digits with them vs a truly desperate opponnent? Will the Lions win? I don't know and part of me wants to see a 0-16 train wreck. But I do think the Lions going to fight hard and they're not playing a dominant opponent by any stretch of the imagination. That will be good enough to cover. Take Detroit +10.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

I'll back Buffalo with Edwards back. The Bills have rushed for +150 yards in 4 of the last 5 and Denver is vulnerable there. Passing has hurt the Buffalo offense and Edwards coming back is huge. I'm playing this as if the game will be important to Denver but if the Chargers lose to the Bucs early the Broncos clinch the division. Denver can't be trusted at home, now 0-7 ATS this year and another "reverse line move" situation. Take Buffalo +5 for a 3* Regular Play.

I'll take more than a FG with a live home dog. Seattle has been playing better, the weather evens out the teams further, and it's Holmgren's last game here at home. The Jets haven't been playing well enough to justify laying more than a FG in this spot on the road and this is a solid "reverse line move" game with the public loving the Jets but the line getting lower. Take Seattle for a 3* Regular Play.

Tennessee strikes me as a vulnerable team right now. Injuries have played a significant role and I think opposing coaches have seen enough film now to figure out some of the things that made Tennessee successful early on. The Titans are 2-2 recently with losses to the Jets and Texans, giving up 375+ yards on defense during each of those games. Pittsburgh on the other hand has just finished beating 3 very motivated and solid opponents (Baltimore, Dallas, New England). They just keep finding ways to win. The D has been exceptional and that's their edge in this game. They shut down the opposing team's rushing attack (which is especially important to Tennessee's offense) and only once all year have they allowed more than 200 yards passing (228 vs Indy). With the #1 seed on this line I'll lay less than 3 with the better team who also has a stronger D and is healthier. Take Pittsburgh -1 for a 5* Top Play. I'd still lay up to -2.5 as a Top Play if the line moves. Play it now to get the best possible number.

I'll back KC led by Thigpen. Nasty cold weather that can't help the Dolphins, a KC team that hasn't quit, and Miami offense that has scored 16 or less in 3 straight. The Dolphins have found ways to win by usually not by a significant margin, covering only 1 of their last 6. Good reverse line move in this game as well with more individual bets on Miami but the line moving from -4 to -3.5. Take Kansas City +3.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

Detroit and Orlovsky delivered on the road for us last week at 0-13 and I expect them to deliver at home this week at 0-14. Forget the numbers, here's what I think this really boils down to. Detroit showed last week they're still willing to fight. Orlovsky is a leader and he looked good last week in spite of the layoff. He gives them a chance with the weapons he has like WR Calvin Johnson. Facing a road trip tom frozen Green Bay after this one, the Lions know they're staring infamy in the face. I expect their very best effort here. The Saints know they pissed away their season last week and even 9-7 won't do it this season. It wouldn't be a shock if that a bit of their intensity away. Big away favorites with bad defenses are a bad bet vs the spread and the Saints qualify. Losing Bush also doesn't help given his impact on special teams and opponent game plans. I expect the Lions will give the Saints everthing they can handle and at least cover the big number. Take Detroit +7 for a 4* Regular Play.

I like Baltimore at home. They've been playing smashmouth football and Flacco could outduel Roethlisberger because of better pass protection. Baltimore looks like a solid, dangerous team rightn now and they've handled Pittsburgh at home in the past. The Steelers haven't been as dominant and I'm backing on the Baltimore D to make a special play that locks up the cover. Take Baltimore -3 for a 3* Regular Play. Note: There are -2.5's available, I'll grade it at -3.

Strange dynamic with Arizona clinching their division already. Minnesota has won 3 straight and 5 of 6 to be tied for the division with the Bears. I expect Minnesota to have an edge in focus and intensity. They run well and defend the run well, always important for a live dog. Their D has allowed less than 20 in 4 straight and while I don't expect them to hold Warner to under 20, I think they have enough to stay competitive. I like Arizona but what I don't see is a quality win the past 2 months. They've lost to the winning teams and beaten up on the losers. I'll take 3 with the Vikes in this situation. Take Minnesota +3 for a 3* Regular Play.

Atlanta has been dominant at home and their whole season has been buiding towards a big game like today. I expect the crowd to be nuts and the players to respond. Tampa's D has injury concerns and they've been vulnerable recently. In fact, Tampa injuries affect both sides of the ball to help this play. Ryan has developed quickly and Atlanta can consistently be counted on to put up 20+ points. Tampa is travelling off a short-week Monday night loss which is traditionally a negative situation and alot of energy was put into that game. Atlanta is still undervalued and off a tight loss to the Saints. Recently they took out a very good Carolina team on this same field and this is a great spot to see them bounce back from last week and help their playoff chances. Take Atlanta -3 for a 3* Regular play.

I was hoping for a +6 but I'm on KC again. Weather will help even things out and in their 1st meeting KC gave the Chargers everything they could handle. Chiefs are running the ball well and I think they'll be jacked for the Charger rematch. I expect San Diego to eventually win a close on so I'll grab the generous points. Take KC +5.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

Hold your nose but this one sets up well and feels right. No player wants to be part of the 1st infamous 0-16 team. I think there's a good chance that 0-16 happens given Detroit's schedule but all we care about here is effort and covering the huge spread. Detroit becomes more of a live dog with Orlovsky now getting the start at QB. He was becoming a leader when he got hurt 5 weeks ago and they'd likely have a win by now if he had stayed healthy. I like what his return brings to the team this week. Detroit has the potential to run on the Indy D and Orlovsky can stretch the field and get the ball to Calvin Johnson among others. Indy is now sitting pretty at 9-4, won't be worried about Detroit (no matter what the players/coaches might say publicly), and have 2 division games on deck. I expect Indy to show up with less than 100% focus, put up a decent effort for about 1/2 the game and then put it on cruise control. Lots of ways for the dog to cover 17 in this situation. Take Detroit +17 for a 4* Regular Play.

Houston is a strong home team and has come on strong to close out the season, winning 3 straight and just missed vs the Colts 4 games back. Schaub looked great last week and Tennessee's D is starting to show cracks and injuries are a factor today, especially the Titan pass rush. Feels like a positive mojo situation for the Texans and note that +70% of all bets have come in on Tennessee but the line went the opposite way. Big indicator in our favor. Take Houston +3 for a 3* Regular play.

Huge game for Washington and I have no doubt they'll be the stronger motivated team. Washington has shown alot of character down the stretch in recent seasons and this is another gut check. They have enough D to be competitive and Portis is expected to play. On the other side, Baltimore is in a more comfortable position and have the biggest game of the season on deck vs the Steelers. Coouldn't blame them if they have less than 100% focus on the 'Skins. Projected weather looks less than ideal and that helps even things out for the dog, especially getting more than 4. Take Washington +5 for a 5* Top Play.

Denver's D makes them a very risky favorite, especially laying this much chalk. KC has an equally poor D but enough on offense to cover, especially their improved running game vs a soft Denver run D. Thigpen is making plays at QB which is what we want out of a live dog. KC has now covered as dogs in their lasst 3 road games (Jets, SD, & Oakland) while the Broncos are 0-6 ATS as home favs and laying a big number again. Take KC +9.5 for a 3* play.

Philadelphia is definitely a motivated team and a live dog. McNabb and Westbrook are coming on and the team has it's confidence back. This is a group that knows what big games are all about and have a playmaking D. Quite a line move from -9 to -6.5 in spite of the fact almost 70% of all bets are on the Giants. Big/smart money is definitely on Philly and I agree. The weather could also make it tougher for the Giants to cover the generous points. Take Philadelphia +6.5 for a 3* play.

I like the setup. This is it for the Saints who are better than their record. They lost a tough one last week vs the Bucs with Brees making a critical mistake. Brees carved up the Atlanta pass D in their last matchup but lost. Healthier on O than they've been all year, I expect Brees to have a huge day. Defensively the Saints are vulnerable but I expect them to step up at home in this critical game, same as they did vs the Packers 2 weeks ago. Take New Orleans -3 for a 3* play.

I like the Under in this one. Both teams have gone Under in 7 of their last 8 games. Oakland has a hard time putting up points unless playing poor NFL defenses that also struggle vs the run. I don't see that being the problem for San Diego's D playing at home. They have trouble with passing teams and have been far more respectable vs the run. On the other side, Oakland's team strength is their pass D, rarely giving up more than 200 yards. I expect San Diego to run it down Oakland's throats and not be pushed by Oakland's offense to match scoring. The Charger run game has been off all season but given the matchup they should do fine but not totally overwhelming. This all comes down to the Chargers being smart enough to attack on the ground, the time coming off the clock faster as a result, and the Raiders not having enough offense on the road to respond. Also keep in mind 41 is a very important number when betting totals. Play Under 41.5 for a 3* play.

This line is based on season W-L records and is out of whack. Injuries to the Buffalo D have hurt them badly and they aren't the same team that started strong in September. On the other hand San Fran is making improvements with their new coach and ran into a very motivated Dallas team last week. Good systems also apply in favor of SF and asking Buffalo to cover -6.5 is a tall order. The public is all over Buffalo but the line has held steady. Good indicator for us and I won't be shocked if the 49ers win outright. Take San Francisco +6.5 for a 4* Regular play.

The Giants keep covering so the oddsmakers keep inflating them. I'll grab more than a FG with a solid, motivated home dog. Their pass D has been strong and also decent vs the run. The home crowd also takes that up a notch. Offensively they take care of the football which helps vs this type of D. A tremendous system also lines up in our favor. Take Washington +3.5 for a 4* Regular play.

Not a bad spot for Cleveland. Weather is less than 100% which could bring the running game into play even more. That works in their favor, especially with Sanders out for Indy. They've continued to be hammered on run D. Anderson getting hism job back could have an interesting dynamic and he'll be very motivated. Remember, his bencing was controversial because he was playing his best football of the season at the time. Indy isn't winning by big margins and probably not as good as their 7-4 record suggests. Feels like a live spot for the home dog and with almost 90% of bets POURING in on Indy and the line not budging, that's not a good sign for Indy backers. Take Cleveland +4.5 for a 3* Regular play.

Too high of a total. Overall the Dallas run game hasn't been very good lately and they may not need to force the issue nfor 60 minutes on offense. The Seattle D has been respectable and can be competitivem here. The Dallas run D has looked solid and the pass D looks better. Seattle has struggled to throw it with Hasselbeck trying to get his form back. I expect Seattle will churn out their 5th straight under, especially considering the big number. Play Under 46.5 for a 3* regular play.

An anti-public play and improved line value. The Saints finally play a home game after a long road stretch and have a strong enough passing attack to win this one. Run D could be key with the Saints actually outperforming the Packers recently. Motivational edge to New Orleans given their records and divisional standings. Take New Orleans -1 for a 3* Play.

4* on Detroit +9. Great winless home dog system, Culpepper playing better, and a Detroit team that has covered 4 of 6 and hasn't packed it in.

The Jags D is a shell of their former selves, forget anything they did against the Lions last week. Tennessee is finding their passing game and the Jags have been killed defending the run all year. On the other side, the Titans D has not been as dominant and Jacksonville has things going for them on offense and they are desperate for a win at 4-5. I think they let it all hang out. Good weather and line (under 41) also works in our favor. Play Over 40 for a 3* Regular Play.

Great setup. Seattle battled last week and get back key players on offense this week. The Seahawks are struggling but Hasselbeck and the others will give their whole team and emotional boost here, especially at home. The Cards D is just what the doctor ordered, allowing big plays in the passing game. Arizona now has a 4 game lead in their division and are coming off an emotionally draining win. They couldn't be in a bigger letdown spot vs a 2-7 opponent. Hasselbeck may start slow but he's played very well against Arizona in the past. I think this is one of those NFL games that shock the hell out of most bettors when the day is done. The public is all over Arizona (+80% of spread bets) and the line hasn't moved. Seen this movie before and I'll gladly line up on the other side. Take Seattle for a 4* Regular Play.

Crazy total in the 50's but I think this sets up perfectly. The Broncos D is a mess and Atlanta is playing very well led by Ryan. I'm expecting WR Roddy White to have a huge day and they won't have an answer to the running game. Broncos are low on RBs and their WRs have a huge advantage over the Falcons CBs. Watch Marshall, Royal, and Cutler go off. I also think the aggressive Falcon D will add a couple key turnovers with their pass rush. Key injury: CB Champ Bailey is out. Play Over 51 for a 3* Regular Play.

Ugly game but I like the way this sets up. Philly is the better team, no doubt. But off the Giants game where they invested a ton of energy I don't think they'll be at their best here. The Bengals are starting to improve at some key spots including QB and last week earned their 1st win vs Jacksonville. That's a great setup now coming out of a bye. The public is all over the Eagles and the Bengals fit a very successful pointspread profile today. I can definitely see a game the Eagles win by 7 or less. Take Cincinnati +9.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

KC is playing much better than their 1-8 record. They've just missed vs the Jets, Bucs, and Chargers the past 3 weeks (losing each by 4 or less). At home, this is a great setup. Thigpen has sparked the turnaround I really like their aggressive play and attitude. Laying points with a bad D on the road tends to be suicide but it's no surprise the public is all over Drew Brees and the Saints here. I'm expecting a higher scoring game that KC could win outright. Take Kansas City +5 for a 5* Top Play.

Baltimore has won 4 straight and Flacco has done a solid job at QB. With their improvements on offense and playmakers on D, I'll back them to stay within the number which has moved all the way to -7. The Raven's run D and expected windy conditions also help our chaces with this big spread. A good system applies here, there's a reverse line move indicating sharp money on Baltimore, and NY is off a huge divisional win vs Philly. Take Baltimore +7 for a 3* Regular Play.

I'm on New England and I was waiting for the line move to -3 for greater value. The Patriots have home field advantage and I think they're the better team. Not a big difference, but more sound overall and less likely to press or lose the turnover battle. As a team they're big game tested and this is a big one. Cassel continues to play efficiently and Favre hasn't been on top of his game lately. The D has turned it around as well (see the Under write-up for details). The Jets did slaughter the Rams last week. But I give the Patriots more credit for beating the a decent Bills last week. That one is quite similar to this game, an up-and-comer going on the road to face the big bully of the division. Confident going in but if things don't go well that erodes quickly and focus is the next to go. The Patriots know they're facing a good team and I expect them to grind out a good win and cover. It's their division until it's taken from them and I don't think the Jets are quite ready to do that. Take New England -3 for a 3* Regular Play.

Patriots D has been playing well lately, giving up 18 pts or less in 4 straight and 3.5 yards/carry in 3 straight. That's important vs the Jets. The Jets have played the run well and the Patriots are still relatively conservative on offense. Weather looks less than ideal and total is above the key number of 41. The Pats have gone gone under 40 in 3 straight and traditionally play lower scoring games at home vs winning teams. Big game for both teams I expect them to be guarding against the big mistakes, especially early. Play Under 42 for a 4* Regular Play

San Diego needs this win and are better than their record but laying -15 with a 3-5 team? The Chiefs have battled hard the past 2 games vs the Jets and Bucs and had chances to win them both. No coincidence QB Thigpen was behind center for both. That makes their weapons like WR Bowe and TE Gonzales relevant and Jamaal Charles has looked good running the football. San Diego has only been average defensively and while I don't expect KC to win, I do expect them to hang within the big spread. A good system also lines up in our favor regarding large NFL dogs. Take Kansas City +15 for a 3* Regular Play.

Jacksonville is now 1-5 S/U and 0-6 ATS as favorites and they're laying almost a TD on the road here. They've been below average on offense but surprisingly they've been below average vs both the pass & run (combined allowing 5.9 yards/play vs opponents who typically average 5.3). Not good and that includes big plays. But who wants to put their hard earned money on a winless team right? Vegas counts on this and these winless "anti-public" teams are very profitable catching significant points. The question is whether or not we can trust the Lions. What I see is a team that hasn't quit. They've played Minnesota, Houston, Washington, and Chicago tough this past month and had a chance to win all 4. I'll back them in front of the home crowd to further increase our chances of a highly motivated effort. Culpepper is the wildcard but he has Johnson to throw to deep and an improving running game. Culpepper has been throwing strong in practice. But this play is about the team and I expect them to rally around their new veteran QB. Very close to making this a Top Play but I can't in Culpepper's 1st game back. Take Detroit +6.5 for a 4* Regular Play.

I like Baltimore as a team and I'll likely be backing them a couple times before the season is done. But not here. Houston plays their best football at home and this is a HUGE game. They had their chances at Minnesota last week and outgained then but ultimately fell short. Rosenfels will be fine here and played well last week. He gets the Baltimore D still somewhat banged up and they have big targets in the passing game (fantasy owners - TE Owens would be a strong start catching dump-offs). Baltimore is sitting cozy at 5-3 off a divisional win and traveling for the 2nd straight week. I know we'll have the better motivated team who will be laying it all on the line. Homefield can make a big difference in run defence to keep Baltimore somewhat in check. On pass defense the Texans can hold their own but big plays have killed them. I expect a focused Houston team to win by 3 or more here in a mild shocker. Take Houston -1 for a 3* Regular Play.

I'll back Washington currently laying less than a FG. Both D's have been solid and laying less than 3 I like the combination of Washington's home field advantage and better consistency on offense. They've committed fewer turnovers and have gotten better play from their O-line compared to the Steelers. Take Washington -2 for a 3* Regular Play.

The line has moved back above 37 which I was hoping for. Take the Under here. This feels like a smashmouth game. Two excellent D's and I like Pittsburgh's ability to at least slow down the Redskin running game and make them earn what they get. Campbell hasn't thrown an INT and smashmouth running combined with controlled pasing will eat at the clock. On the other side, Pittsburgh's shaky O-line and Washington's abilities on pass defense also looks to slow the Steelers offence down significantly. I'm expecting a 17-13 type of game won by the Redskins. It's moved to 38 almost everywhere as the public loves betting the Over on Monday night and have done well doing so. Not tonite. Play Under 38 for a 3* Regular Play (note: a few books still have 37.5 so wait until closer to gametime and try to grab a 38). One other note...I pointed out my struggles early in the season with totals but they are currently 5-4-0 for the year and on a 3-0 run.

The public is betting Philly like they know the score and you rarely see +80% on bets falling on one side as is the case here. But more significant is the reverse line move to -6.5. That SCREAMS smart/big money is on Seattle and forced the books to go to -6.5. We've seen this movie before and this is an extreme reverse line move. I like Philly as a team but they lack focus. Their last 2 wins were covered late after sluggish starts, they're back on the West coast again, and they may not have that same determination now sitting at 4-3 and a big divisional game on deck. Seattle has been playing better D and have traditionally been solid at home. Seneca Wallace is a nice upgrade at QB and with a game under his belt and his mobility I expect the Seattle offense to be competitive, especially running the ball. At 2-5 this is HUGE for Seattle. They will have the motivational edge and will do enough to earn a cover building off last week's momentum. Hold your nose and take home dog Seattle +6.5 for a 3* Regular play.

Really great set-up. Green Bay had 2 solid wins before their bye to get back to 4-3. Teams in this type of situation tend to come out of their byes focused and recharged. Tennessee has a solid team and advantages in the running game but played a HUGE game last week to take control of their division. I can't imagine a bigger letdown situation for this team and sitting 7-0 vs a non-conference opponent it's not realistic to expect them to be at their best. I'll take a good team catching more than 4 in this situation. Take Green Bay +4.5 for a 4* Regular play.

Small total and our edge is 2 offenses that have been playing better and defensive injuries to Baltimore that should leave them very vulnerable the pass. Browns Jamal Lewis also tends to be quite effective vs his former team on the ground. Their meeting this season and both last season saw 38+ points scored and remember 37 is one of the KEY numbers when betting NFL totals. Weather looks very good and I expect to see 38+ scored again. Play Over 36.5 for a 3* Regular play.

Good spot for Cleveland. I talked about character last week and Cleveland delivered an outright upset vs the Jags. At 3-4 this is a huge game for them. Their character is not a question mark and they believe they can still save their season. Remember, this is a team with high expectations coming into 2008. I'll back the Brown at home laying the small number vs a Baltimore team that's very banged up on D and not nearly as desperate. Take Cleveland -1.5 for a 4* Regular play.

The Titans have matchup advantages with their running game and we've done well backing them this season but I'm on the Colts. Huge game for them and a tremendous situation at 3-3 and off a blowout loss along with being 3 games back in the division. Regardless of the talk this week, I expect Indy will have the edge in intensity and focus. That can help to overcome some of their shortcomings in run defence. Also keep in mind when not facing high powered passers they've been decent against the run, even without Sanders. Aside from motivational factors and the pointspread, which I think is at the center of this play, Indy is big game battle tested. That counts for more than people think and the Tennessee D is in for a significant test. Indy is healthier on the O-line tonight and Rhodes has run with power. I think we see a game where Indy lays it all on the line and battles for 60 minutes. I'll take +4 with them in this situation. Take Indy +4 for a 3* Regular Play.

Giants are a terrific road team and the underdog role is even better. Good pass rush, injuries to the Pittsburgh O-line and others, and the Giants strong running game gives us our edge. Neither team has added motivation and an outright upset is definitely possible. Take the NY Giants +3 for a 3* Regular Play.

Heart and character is a big part of this play. It was on display for the Browns vs the Giants in their upset and they came close to beating the Redskins. Anderson needs to pick up his play and he's capable when focused. They have a solid running game to lean on and the Jags D is a step down from the past. We get the more desperate team that has shown character vs an opponent who isn't built to cover big spreads. Take Cleveland +7 for a 3* Regular Play.

Hold your nose but this is a strong system play on a winless big dog this late in the season. They have played decent on D and Fitzpatrick has started to show some things as he gets used to running the offence. Not great, but not so damn raw and he does have playmakers and a running game that looks better with Benson running it. Houston isn't used to the big fav role and their D gives Cincy a chance to be competitive. Take Cincinnati +9 for 3* Regular Play.

Both are off byes but this has all the makings of a statement game for Philly. All of a sudden they're MUCH healthier on offense and they could be deadly to an opponent who can't match up. In stroll the Falcons feeling good about themselves but have some big shortcomings in their secondary. Atlanta's been hammered in both road games when up against a good D and Philly's D can bring pressure and make game changing plays in the secondary. The action has been pretty even and I think the public gets burned thinking +9.5 points with a 4-2 dog is a gift. I'm thinking Philly hits a few big plays on offense, force Atlanta mistakes in catchup mode, and turns this into a blowout. Take Philadelphia -9.5 for a 4* Play.

I'll take +3 in a neutral site game with these teams. Both are 3-4 and off losses. New Orleans stings more because it was a blowout and 3-4 in their division/conference puts them in a far more desperate spot. Colston had 1 game to get his legs back and guaranteed he'll be motivated for a better performance today. Brees is a real leader and against a soft Chargers pass D I expect him to get his team a much needed W. Take New Orleans +3 for a 3* Regular Play.

Over 75% of the action has come down on the Bills and the line hasn't moved. That's just funny. Guaranteed the public is betting this one like they already know the score. Buffalos big win last week vs San Diego took a ton of energy and their great start to the season will take away some of their "hunger". Miami is a live home dog here off a loss. They'll be the better motivated team, they can run the ball effectively, and have a veteran QB that can still make plays. This will be a "shocker" to many. Take Miami +1 for a 4* Regular Play.

Seattle motivated and has enough D to hang within the big number. With the exception of the Giants game, they've been solid vs the run with is a necessity. Wallace is competent and WRs healthier now. Tampa is the better team but Seattle has the motivational edge and even a 10 point loss would get the job done. Take Seattle +10.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

Tempting to take the Titans to blowout the Chiefs. It really is. But both off a bye leads to a good situation combined with an ultra low line. QB change can't hurt for the Chiefs and Kolby Smith does have wheels. Tennessee will run wild (?200 yards in the cards) and also hit some big ones off playaction. KC was shutout into the bye, I expect them to do better that expected or give up expecsive turnovers if they fall way behind. Play Over 35.

The Giants may have lost big last week but good teams don't bounce back as well as most people assume after their 1st loss. Double-digits vs a team that has things going for them on offence and defence? San Fran has played an unfortunate schedule losing to HIGHLY motivated teams recently to drop to 2-4. They had an excellent chance to take out the Eagles last week (leading) before turnovers killed them. At 2-4 and feeling they're better than their record shows they'll also have their fair share of motivation. Opposite line move in this one too as a bonus. Giants open at -12 and bets have poured in on them because "they'll be mad". However, the line is now at -10.5. Hmmm, I wonder why they're not -13 if so many love them? Like I've mentioned almost weekly, we've seen this movie before. Small, public (& typically losing) bets love the Giants but sharp money has created an opposite line-move. Take San Francisco +10.5 for a 4* Regular Play.

I think Miaimi is the better team and undervalued. They'll be fighting to get back to .500 and have advantages in the passing game plus Baltimore has significant injuries. A couple Flacco picks are also quite possible. I expect them to win and avoid dropping to 2-4 and I'll lay the FG.

Solid matchup advantages and a good situation based on recent games. Both teams are 3-3 but Chicago has 3 close losses including a tough one last week on the road vs the Falcons. Minnesota squeeeked by the lowly Lions at home to climb back to .500. The Bears have been very solid vs the run, even better than the Vikings and what impresses me is Chicago's improvements in the passing game. Orton a top 10 fantasy QB? Strange but true and Hester is looking like a real WR. So running yards will have to be earned on both sides but Chicago has the tools to attack the below average Viking pass defence. Combined with a special teams edge, home field advantage, and last week's results I expect Chicago to be the better motivated team and earn a solid win and cover. Take Chicago -3 for a 4* Regular Play.

Dallas won and failed to cover last week and now hit the road with their shaky D to play a winning team that can put up alot of points with their passing game. That makes for a terrific technical situation favoring the Cards. With Dallas sitting at 4-1 and Arizona's history of pulling home shockers, I like them to hang with Dallas well enough to get the cover. Take Arizona for a 3* Regular Play.

This pick comes with a disclaimer...so far this year I'm 2-4 with Totals. However, each were Unders. I keep coming back to this play as I look at the card and I think this is worthy of a play. The bottom line is you have 2 dynamic offences that have scored 30 points/game this season. On average, their opponents normally allow 22/game so the scoring wasn't due to terrible opposition. In addition, both defences have underachieved, sometime quite badly and current injuries are affecting the Cowboys. What I keep seeing is Arizona's habit of totally blowing coverages at times and Dallas taking advantage. Then Warner driving the Cards all over the field at home to keep pace. I really like Arizona's habit of not quitting in the 4th and with both teams having the potential to push each other and reach 30 points, I think the oddsmaker still hasn't adjusted this line enough. If the game flows right the Over will cash and that's what I'm betting on. Play Over 52 for a 3* Regular Play.

Denver is fortunate to be sitting pretty at 4-1 with a comfy 2-game lead in their division. That helps us here and I feels the 2-3 Jags are the better team and there's no question they'll also be the better motivated team off a tough loss to the Steelers. Jacksonville won't be intimidated going into Denver. Last season they came into Denver and won 23-14 as 3 point dogs while running for almost 200 yards. The Broncos are again listed as home favorites here, a role they've surprisingly been poor at in recent seasons. The Jags other 2 losses came against Buffalo & Tennessee in tight games to open the season so quality of opponent has played a big role in their 2-3 start. The Denver defense has struggled and Jacksonville has an excellent chance to win the line of scrimmage and the game. This one is getting added early due to the extra line value of +3.5 but don't shy away if the line does eventually settle at +3. Take Jacksonville +3.5 for a 5* Top Play.

The Bengals appear to be an ugly team to back but I expect this is one of those games where the public will get killed backing the obvious favorite. Winless NFL teams that have things going for them make for long-term pointspread success. The Bengals fit the bill. They've given the Giants and Cowboys everything they can handle the past 3 weeks and along with a loss to the Browns where they were -3 in turnovers and playing without Palmer. Palmer is back the Bengals are showing signs of life. I expect him to have even more confidence after testing his arm out under live fire last week. There is no question that Cincy will be the better motivated team and while the Jets are off to a decent start, they are not a special team that would cause us to back off here. They have some deficiencies in their pass defense and their running game has underachieved. The Bengal pass defense has been better than expected this year and are getting healthier which can make an immediate impact. They can hang with New York in this situation. A quick look at the line shows a ton of public action on the Jets but suspiciously the books have been forced to move the line in the opposite direction from -6.5 to -6. Like I've been saying all year, seen this movie before and no doubt the early smart money is on the Bengals. Don't be surprised if the Bengals pull a shocker here and I like this one enough to make a 2nd Top Play which is rare. Take Cincinnati +6 for a 5* Top Play.

As a Redskins fan this is tough one to make but the situation warrants it. St. Louis fits a great profile featuring winless road dogs catching a pile of points. Add the bye week, coaching change, and switch back to Bulger to the mix to strengthen this play. Keep in mind prior to the bye the Rams had a 4th quarter lead on the Bills but blew it. They outgained Buffalo by 100 yards on the day so they have the potential to compete which is what I want to see. The Redskins are in a real flat spot after 2 great divisional wins and it will be tought to get up 100% for the winless Rams. I can see Washington running out the clock with a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. These types of plays always look butt ugly but these double-digit road dogs cash at an extremely high rate as a blanket system and with reasons to think Washington may not have 100% focus I'll back the Rams. Line movement also indicates the sharp money has lined up on St. Louis. Take the Rams +13 for a 3* play.

At the heart of this play, Minnesota is better than the public thinks and at 1-3 they'll be hungry and highly motivated. They beat & outgained a good Panthers team 2 weeks ago in Frerotte's 1st start and last week outgained but lost on the road to a strong Titans team. A -3 turnover margin was the difference. That game helps us here and their stock is down because the public just sees the final score and their season record. The Saints have a high powered offense but it will be very tough to run the ball tonight. The Minny pass D has been decent and while New Orleans has the edge in that matchup, the Vikings have the ability to minimize the damage. The big matchup tho is the Vikings offence vs the Saints D. The Saints run D has been horrible and the Vikings have a real chance to control the game there which also takes the ball out of the hands of Brees. Frerotte has played well and has 2 starts under his belt now. The Saints pass D is very beatable. New Orleans won a division game last week (49ers) to move to 2-2. I like the setup as we have the team with better fundamentals, stronger motivation, and matchup advantages catching points. As a bonus, the public is on New Orleans in a big way but the line hasn't moved. Another positive indicator for the Vikings. Take Minnesota +3 for a 5* Top Play.

Buffalo is the better team but I like this setup. Arizona is off a bad loss to the Jets where they fell behind big in the 1st half and couldn't catch up. Their division is wide open and they have enough offense to play hard and bounce back at home. Buffalo is playing well but they aren't special. The last 2 weeks they've been shaky, nipping Oakland late and trailing for quite awhile vs the hapless Rams. Some teams have a hard time mentally to deal with success and the way their past 2 games have gone they seem that way. Byes next week (Buffalo) can be a big red flag and sitting at 4-0 I don't see them matching Arizona's intensity in a non-conference game. One last thing. Well over 60% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo but Arizona has moved from a pick to a small favorite. Seen this movie before, smart money is on Arizona, public is on the 4-0 "red-hot" Bills. Take Arizona -1.5 for a 4* Regular Play.

Another home dog but they played well last week at 3-0 and I expect a great effort in their first home game (Hurricane Ike) and sitting at 0-3. I still don't think Indy is right and their D is not playing physical football. Good live home dog and no surprise, this one also is contrary to what the public thinks. I was hoping for a +3.5 but smart money has forced the books to keep this one at +3. Don't be surprised if the Texans "shock" with the outright win. Take Houston +3 for a 3* Regular play.

Good spot for the home dog. Off a bye and prior to that an impressive win. They can be competitive here on both sides of the ball. San Diego's D has been a problem area (always a good scenario for big home dogs) and they haven't been playing 4 quarters as a team. That's good news since this is an early start "body clock game" which helps our cause. I'll back Miami and expect them to get off to a good start in the 1st half and play well enough down the stretch to earn a cover. Betting public is all over San Diego and we've had another "reverse line move" indicating smart money on the Dolphins. Take Miami +6.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

I like Detroit getting more than a FG as a very live home dog off the bye. Goodbye Matt Millen and I expect a very energized effort at 0-3. They've played Chicago well in the recent past and catch them in a good spot, off a hard fought win vs Philly. Expect a good game from the Detroit offence and here's another play going against public money pouing in on Chicago (or more against Detroit). Take Detroit +3.5 for a 4* Regular play.

The 49ers are still flying under the radar with a solid running game and improvements in the passing attack. New Orleans has injuy problems right now and their defence makes them quite vulnerable. Good SF pass defence numbers and poor Saints run & pass defence numbers adds to this play. The line move says it all. It opened at -6.5 and a solid majority of bets have come in on New Orleans. Line should move to -7 or more, right? Wrong. Big, sharp money has forced the books to go to -4. Public is going to be surprised here and New Orleans is in for a dog fight. Take San Francisco +4 for a 4* Regular Play.

Two teams that can play aggressive D and both should run the ball well, especially Tampa. What I like it the pointspread combined with the situation. Green Bay is off a hard fought loss vs Dallas and will be without Al Harris. Griese led Tampa to a great comeback win last week. Griese was the best QB in Chicago while he was there but stuck as a backup as they tried to find their young QB of the future. Bottom line is that Griese can play and is a leader. Last week was no fluke. Comeback wins can really ramp up a team the following week and I think that's our big edge today as they are laying a very small number at home. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

Houston sits at 0-2 and a lack a focus hurt them last week vs Tennessee. They had numerous chances and didn't execute so the 31-12 score is deceiving. They've had 2 strong opponents and finally have a chance to mentally regroup after all happened recently. Their running game was quite encouraging last week vs Tennessee and they catch the Jags at a good time off a win vs Indy. Jaguar O-line injuries also help. Public money has poured in on Jacksonville but the line has held at -7. We've seen this movie before as smart money is holding the line. Take Houston for a 4* Regular Play. Close to making this a Top Play.

Good setup for an underdog cover. A big road favorite that has struggled defensively, an opponent they'll have a hard time getting up for, and no added urgency with a 3-0 record. KC will start Huard which will help and they have a chance to do well with the running game and mix in the pass. Home dogs in this role do extremely well vs the spread and this fits one of the strongest NFL systems I look for each week. These kinds of picks will never make you feel cozy but they are profitable in the long run. Take Kansas City +9.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

Yeah, Chargers were robbed and are much better than their 0-2 record. But the Jets aren't slouches and came closer to beating the Pats last week than 19-10 suggests. Jets can defend the pass and generate a rush, they can play solid D, and Favre now has 2 full games under his belt with the Jets. Maybe even more important, the Jets coaches may have learned something from their dumb playcalling. One final thought. The thinking by the public will be San Diego is mad and will hammer the Jets. But the Jets aren't punching bags and often teams that are screwed the previous week spend too much time whining and dwelling on what happened to be sharp. Teams that blew it themselves have better motivation which isn't the case here. Weird dynamic but every season these screwed teams disappoint ATS more often than not. I'll back the Jets to hang within the big number. Take the NY Jets +9 for a 3* Regular Play.

Public perception has made the Cowboys 3 pt favorites. Green Bay is too solid of a team to be 3 point dogs and Rodgers has silenced the critics with his play and leadership. I like the Packer D better than the Cowboy D and Dallas is off a divisional barnburner which could have them less than 100% here. Solid angle supporting this play with the home dog having the ability to put up points. Take the Packers +3 for a 4* Regular play.

Too many points to give a solid 0-2 Jags teams. I've bet against Jacksonville the past 2 weeks but that was due to the value their opponents were getting(Bills & Titans). Both the Bills and Titans are much improved this year and the Jags lost 2 tight games. The Jags are a good team, they'll be hungry and they've proven they can hang with Indy. The Colts have their own issues, especially their run defence right now. With safety Sanders now out, the Jags 0-2 start to ensure focus, and +5 points, this is a Top. Take Jacksonville for a 5* Top Play.

The fact both have quality D's gets forgotten about & both held last week's opponents to under 205 yards each. The last time these met it was a 10-6 battle. I'm not expecting a 10-6 repeat, but I expect it to stay Under the key number of 45. Very tempted to take Philly but given their WR questions I'll stick with just the total. Play Under 46 for a 3* Regular Play.

This line is definitely inflated. Arizona played ok vs San Fran last week but benefitted greatly by a +5 turnover margin. Miami was scrappy in a loss to the Jets and almost pulled it out after a slow start. Pennington can manage the game and this is a far better team than last year. Too many points. Take Miami for a 4* Regular play.

I'll back the Pats as a small dog. I don't like Cassels as a QB but he managed last week. Very simple for me...I expect New England to show character. Others will be driven to stand up and show they're not dead without Brady. They might be, but I expect them to have a chip on their shoulders. Take New England +1 for a 3* Regular Play.

The Bucs played well vs the Saints last week and almost pulled the upset. I like Griese as their QB and he looked good in preseason. He knows Gruden's system and I expect him and the entire Bucs team to play hard at home off an opening loss. The public is all over Atlanta after last week but teams in Atlanta's situation tend to get blown out after pulling huge home upsets. Big emotional drain and it's hard to come back the next week as intense and focused. Tampa's D will capitalize on mistakes and they will win the battle in the trenches. Take Tampa Bay -7 for a 4* Regular Play.

I'll back Carolina laying the standard FG for home field advantage. I like them better as a team and feel they have a much better QB. Delhomme is seriously underrated. Panthers beat a good San Diego team last week, outgained them, and held that solid rushing attack to < 4 yards/rush. Take Carolina -3 for a 3* Regular Play.

The public perception hasn't changed and Buffalo is still undervalued. They gave us an easy Top Play winner last week. Good running game and defense makes them a live dog, especially getting more than a FG. Jags have major O-line issues and Garrard was not sharp last week. A good week 2 system also indicates a play on the Bills. Take Buffalo +5.5 for a 3* Regular Play.

Good Under system in play here and I expect both teams to run often to take advantage of weaknesses. The etroit D has been slammed all week and I expect a better effort at home. 45 is a key number and there are lots of ways for it to play out as a winner, espcially early in a season. Take the Under 46 for a 3* Regular play.

Tennessee picked us up a solid upset winner last week vs the Jags and I'm back on them. I actually like them better with QB Collins and this game is about the trenches. Tennessee is looking very solid up front and their running game should hit in a big way here. I'm not much of a believer in Cincy's character and their ability to bounce back right away. They were killed by the Baltimore running game and couldn't get their offense going. Big edge here to Tennessee. Take the Titans +1 for a 5* Top Play.

Chicagos' O is a train wreck and their D is healthier. I expect a game where Indy controls the Bear O and takes it easy with Manning in the 2nd half. Take Under 44 for a 4* play.

Great week 1 system play that is 16-31 overall the past 5 years and even better recently, especially in situations involving small home dogs. I like the 49er QB change but it's a new offense and the Cards are going to want to run the ball more this year. Play Under 42 for a 4* Regular Play.

I like the Chargers but this line is badly inflated. Delhomme looks solid along with the Panther running game and D. I'll back a well coached team that has quite a bit going for them in a non-conference opener getting almost double-digits. Take Carolina +9.5 for a 3* play.

This fits one of the strongest early season systems to a tee. The Under has been quite rewarding in week 1 games in recent seasons with D's ahead of the O's. The situation is at it strongest here. There are also other reasons to support the under here including coaching changes and philosophies. Play Under 41 for a 3* Regular play.

Buffalo is under-rated headed into 2008 and Seattle in my opinion is over-rated. I'll take the small home fav that can run the ball in a non-conference season opener. As a bonus, this is an early start game and Seattle is terrible in this situation. Take Buffalo for a 5* Top Play.

I've been waiting for a line move to -7 with 70% of the money rolling in on the Steelers but the line is holding steady. The Texans are too big of a dog for week 1 and have upset potential with playmakers on offense. Texans also have a young, active D that improved in the 2nd half last year. A great week 1 system also applies to the Texans. Take Houston +6.5 for a 4* Regular play.

The majority of the $ has poured in on the Jags but the line has held firm. Hmmmm....Tennessee is statistically in a good home dog spot for a week 1 opener and they are a well coached team that finds ways to put up W's. Tough for many to pull the trigger against the Jags here but that's where the edge is today. Take Tennessee for a 3* Regular play.

Big offensive edge to the Saints and I'm curious to see their D upgrades. Given the events of the past week, I'll lay a FG with the home side. Take New Orleans -3 for a 3* Regular Play