I'm backing the Saints. They have a dynamic offense that has balance and a running game. Most importantly they have a top flight QB that has played well all year. That gives them a punchers chance in this game. I really liked the way Reggie Bush played with fire in his eyes last week and given the past history and experiences of the Saints, we could have some important intangibles on our side on Sunday. Only the people in the locker room know for sure but I can see it playing out this way. One of my favorite lines has to do with underdogs: "What the odds don't know is this isn't a math test, this is a completely different kind of test, one where passion has a funny way of trumping logic." And make no mistake about it, the Saints do have a punchers chance. The Saints D is healthy unlike other games this season and are capable of creating game changing turnovers. Most people don't realize that Manning has throw far more INTs than Brees this season and the Saints can bring pressure. That will be key in this game. Freeny is a question mark right now and only helps our play is he's limited. I'll take the Saints +4.5 or higher and some books have it at +6. My monitor is posting +4.5 so I'll post it now to get out my play but don't be surprised if you can catch a +6 on Sunday once the public hammers the unstoppable Colts. They'll also remember last week when the Saints could have easily lost to Green Bay. That gave gives us extra value and we've all seen teams have a way of making major adjustments week to week and look very different. The Saints got the jitters out last week, this week they can let it rip in the underdog role. Take New Orleans +4.5 (or higher) for a 3* Play. (Good luck Sunday and check back for a possible totals play depending on the line movement and other factors - maybe a prop wager or 2 also).

Playing the Saints and the Over. I think homefield and defensive injuries will make the difference. Both QBs are playing at a high level and Favre will go down swinging. Take New Orleans -3.5 and Over 54 (both 3* plays)

I think the Jets offense is underrated and I don't expect them to shut down Manning on D. Jets D and running game will earn them the cover and we're getting a very favorable total. Take Over 40 (4* play) and NY Jets +8 (3* Play)

Going Over. The Jets offense is decent and even the Jets will have a hard time limiting the Chargers offensive attack, especially offf the bye and all the motivation in the world. Play Over 42 for a 3* Play.

I'm backing the Cowboys. They are playing very well and got the playoff monkey off their backs. They've hit the postseason with momentum, are getting excellent QB play, a solid running attack, and good defense. That tends to be a winning formula. I think they win straight-up and I wouldn't be shocked if part of the reason is an untimely fumble or 2 from A.P. Yes, the Vikes have Favre. I just see Dallas as the team that will have a bit more of an edge in intensity because of their past playoff futility and some advantages on defense. Take Dallas +2.5 for a 4* Play. (I will also be adding at least one play on the Charger game later today)

The Colts have been an Under team in recent playoff years unless facing a high octane offense. That isn't who they're facing this week. Baltimore will live and die with defense and their running game. They'd love to do that again this week. Indy's defense is under-rated and at home. Last time they met it was a 17-15 score in Baltimore and in all but 1 of their 7 meaningful home games the Colts gave up 17 or fewer points. Play Under 44 for a 3* Play.

Arizona looked great on offense last week and they got through. I see the public is heavily on the Cards and that might have alot to do with the fact they just saw them in action which is human nature. At the same time, there are indicators that say the smart money is on the Saints. As much as I like Warner, I think their defense showed last week they can't compete with a high octane passing game and hot QB. I think the Saints late season slump has everything to do with the pressure of the unbeaten streak and losing it near the end. They'll have made good use of the bye week and have the opportunity to look at the "bunch" formation on film that worked so well for the Cards last week and Green Bay had no answer for. After all the energy they had to expend on Sunday, I think it will be very tough for the Cards to come back on a short week and compete with an extremely motivated Saints team that feel this is their year. Take New Orleans -7 for a 3* Play.

First off, I don't think Green Bay deserves to be a road favorite and I hate betting with the public. But I like the way the Packers have played in the 2nd half of the season and how they played to keep that momentum last week. I'm taking the team that I think is more ready to make some noise in the playoffs. I think the Packers win straight-up and I'm not going to shy away because I don't like the pointspread. Take Green Bay -2.5 for a 3* Play.

I'm taking Philly getting more than a FG and Under a big total of 45. I expect a close game and a better defensive effort from the Eagles this week. last week Philly was playing for positioning and I'm always surprised at how poorly that tends to work out for teams. Aside from what's on the field I like their edge in coaching and I think they will be ready Saturday. As for the Under, I like both defenses and the potential for this one to have 41 points or less scored. Take Philly +4 and Under 45, both for 3* Plays.

I like the Bengals to get the job done at home. Last game was misleading and the intensity wasn't there for ther Bengals. That gives us added line value and I'll back the team with the better QB at home. I believe Jets turnovers will be the difference and one of my all-time favorite Wild-Card angles indicates a play on the Bengals. I like the Bengals to cover the -2.5 but I'm going to grab the moneyline at a very reasonable -128 for added insurance. If you don't have that same option, lay the -2.5. Take Cincinnati for a 4* Play.

Philly should not lack motivation and I'll take the better team getting points. A S/U win would not be a surprise. Take Philly +3 for a 3* Play.

I'll back Under the big number with the main edge being Tennessee's focus on getting CJ 2000 yards or maybe even the record with a monster day. Seattle knows what's coming and I see lots of runs and time off the clock. Take the Under for a 3* Play.

I don't think it's a given that San Diego mails this game in. They're at home, they have more momentum than anyone in the league, and they have very solid backups at the offensive skill positions. Washington has really disappointed the past 2 weeks and on the road with this coaching staff I wouldn't count on their effort. I'll lay -3 with San Diego for a 3* Play.

Line is off, the public loves the Steelers and figures they are the only one with anything to fight for. The reality is that both teams have a slim chance and I'll back a solid Dolphins team at home in week 17 vs a team that played all out last week vs a div opponent. Take Miami +3 for a 3* Play.

I believe the line is way off. The Jags have imploded as of late and they can't be counted on to play with heary on the road in week 17 with only prode on the line. The Browns have come to life and have some talent. At home today you can count on their effort. Take Cleveland -1 for a 5* Play.

I really like the Panthers in this spot. They are playingt with heart and the Saints could easily mail this one in. There are signs already. 7 points could be a drop in the bucket because this game is far more important to the Panthers. Take Carolina -7 for a 4* Play.

I'll back the Redskins off an ugly national TV loss. Another prime time game and this is definitely their Super Bowl. The Cowboy game is always circled and I expect to see their top effort. I'll take a TD with them and home dogs can be especially dangerous in late December. Take Washington +7 for a 3* Play.

Value with this total with both teams hurting defensively with injuries and giving up big plays. The offenses have the ability to score and we could see 50+. Weather is decent. Play Over 43 for a 4* Play.

Every tout in the business seems to be on the Steelers. I see the Ravens as the playof team, not the Steelers. Pittsburgh was one miracle play away from dropping their 6th straight last week and I think that helps us here. I'll take +3 with a motivated Ravens team for a 3* Play.

Tampa travelling off an upset win (turnover aided) is a bad spot for them and Saints off their 1st loss and at home again works to their advantage. Tons of points but this one has blowout potential. Saints gain 450+ yards and this feels like a "wrong place at the wrong time" type of game for the Bucs. Saints -14 for a 3* Play.

The total has been inflated by the recent results but I'm expecting a tighter game. I'm not much for trends but of note these teams haven't exceeded 41 pts vs each other since 2006. They slipped Over the total in their previous meeting this year due to a line of only 37 and with the line now over 43 I see value in the Under. The Giants have been lit up by good offensive opponents that had their passing games clicking but I don't trust Campbell in this situation to deliver TDs instead of FGs. This feels like a game where we'll see 40 or fewer points scored. I'll play Under 43.5 in a relatively cold MNF divisional matchup for a 3* Play.

Playing the Under. Minny totals have been inflated because of the public's love for Favre. As a result, they've gone under in 5 straight. Their WRs are not 100% and I don't think they'll have to throw a ton. They can run like crazy here and the Minny defense is capable of controlling the game. Carolina will fight hard on D in primetime and the offense just isn't up to the challenge. Lots of running in this game and I expect 40 or fewer points scored. Play Under for a 3* Play.

Taking the Panthers. Minnesota is getting a ton of love from the public and this is the type of late season primetime game than can inspire a struggling home dog like the Panthers. But they have some things going for them and they have a good chance to stay within the number. They get off to a good start and they have the running game to tighten the score. Take Carolina +9 for a 3* Play.

The Bears have played some real stinkers on the road and Cutler has no confidence right now. Baltimore is by far the better team and they don't lack motivation. This one could have blowout potential and the Ravens defense and turnovers creates the cover. Of note, the Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games. They won only 2 of those 9, vs the lowly Rams & Browns. Take Baltimore -11 for a 3* Play.

San Fran has been very competitive for 2 straight months and have not lost any of their last 8 by more than a TD. They are playing better on both sides of the ball and Philly's winning streak has over-inflated this line. Take San Francisco +7.5 or higher for a 3* Play.

Lots of action on the Packers but the line is moving in the opposite direction. Smart/big money is on Pittsburgh and this would be a good spot at home to rise up after 5 losses. With Green Bay winners of their last 5, this looks like easy money for Packer backers. That's usually when the opposite happens. Take Pittsburgh -2.5 for a 3* Play.

I'm backing the Bengals. They are too good of a team to be getting 7 points vs anyone and I think the Henry situation combined with a playoff push will have them ready. They can play D and that will earned them the cover. Take Cincy +7 for a 3* Play.

I think this line is way too low. These defenses are capable of allowing 400+ yards at any time as they've shown this past month. Offensively they have weapons and personnel changes are starting to pay off. Two bottom feeder team in this situation have a tendency to lay it all on the line for a win and the potential for lots of points. Weather looks decent. Play Over 37 for a 3* Play.

Taking the Under based on numbers and line value. Dallas has gone Under in 5 of their last 6 while the Saints are 4-1-1 Under in their last 6. Both teams have seen high totals, especially the Saints and with the line above 53.5 now and the public all over the "Over". However, Dallas is capable on D, holding down the Chargers to 20 most recently while I don't trust the Cowboy offense on the road in December. I'll play for a game in a range of 45-53 points. Go Under 53.5 for a 3* Play.

I like Jacksonville's play vs the run and the heart they're showing as a team. Del Rio has them playing above their normal abilities and that makes them dangerous. I'll ride Jacksonville -1 for a 3* Play.

Too many points to give a solid team that plays well on the road. Public perception has inflated the number abouv the -3 to -4 mark. Take Cincinnati +6 for a 3* Play.

I'll play the Under. The Bengals have been playing good D and have sutdown corners. None of their last 5 have gone over 37. Vikes play solid D and can bring the prossure so Cincy leans on the run. Play Under 42.5 for a 3* Play.

I'm not a big Bears fan but this is a good spot catching this many pts at home vs a division rival. They have some things that work to their advantage here and I'll take Chicago +4 for a 3* Play.

I like the Ravens overall and they're a solid team that plays with heart. They have the playmakers on D to make a difference and I'll take them catching more than a FG in this spot. Take Baltimore for a 3* PLay.

70% of all bets are pouring in on Minny but the line is moving the opposite way down from -4. See this one before, smart money is all over the Cards and public perception is the sole reason the Vikings are road favs of more than a FG vs a solid team. Arizona should have Warer back and Lienart got his act together in the 2nd half last week. Arizona has playmakers, home field, and a much improved D. Minny hasn't seen the road in a month and the outright upset would not surprise me. Take Arizona for a 4* Play.

49ers are an undervalued team and they have a chance to climb back to 6-6. They've lost tight games to good teams and teams on the rise which has put them in this position. But they're improved passing offense combined with Seatlle's defensive struggles vs the pass will be the difference. Take San Fran for a 3* Play.

The books opened the line at NO -9.5 and it seems like they're begging for bettors to grab the Saints laying less than a full 10. No surprise 70% of bettors are down on the Saints and if there was a time for a letdwon this would be it after the Pats. Hard to get excited for the 3-8 Redskins. Washington has been competitive covering their last 3, all vs decent opponents, and I can see them losing a respectable game by 4-7 pts. Take Washington +9.5 for a 3* Play.

St. Louis has been competitive their last 3 and Chicago shouldn't be laying almost double-digits vs anyone right now. The Rams have been running the ball well and I don't think Chicago is capable of fully exploiting the Rams issues with run D. Take St. Louis for a 3* Play.

Tennessee has some serious mojo on their side and they're a dangerous team because they believe. One more and they climb all the way back to .500 and a win vs the Colts would be huge for them in every way. They have talent and no doubt we'll have their best effort. Take Tennessee +6.5 for a 3* Play.

The Bills are playing much better since the coaching change. Personnel moves have given them new life on offense to make them competitive. The Jets were burned by turnovers the last time these teams played and the Bills are far better defensively vs the pass. I expect the Jets to run often in this game and limit QB errors which will keep the clock moving and scoring down. The Jets defense can match up with T.O. and the passing game so I expect to see the ground game relied on with RB Fred Jackson and QB Fitzpatrick scrambling. More time off the clock and fewer chances at big plays. The Jets don't have the offensive balance they need to lay more than a FG it what basically amounts to a home game for the Bills. I expect the Bills to be very competitive in a low scoring game. Take Buffalo +3.5 and Under 37, both for 3* Plays.

Should be a good game but I like the value of getting New Orleans at almost a pick-em at home. New Orleans -1 for a 3* Play.

Tennessee is well coached and after starting 0-6 this team is believing it can come all the way back from the dead. The Cards have the better record but I don't see many quality wins and a 3 game lead in their division will hurt any sense of urgency. Warner is off a concussion which may not make a difference but we've seen many times they just aren't as sharp as usual. I'll back a highly motivated Titans team laying less than a FG. Take Tennessee for a 4* Play.

The Jets are 1-6 in their last 7 and Sanchez is showing the inconsistency of a rookie. In their last 2 home games they've lost to the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Bills. Carolina is starting to play better including Delhomme. I'll take more than a FG in this spot. Take Carolina +3.5 for a 4* Play.

Good time for Denver to fight hard in prime time. They have the big losing streak but they've run into the wrong teams at the wrong time and injuries at QB have hurt. The Giants don't deserve to be laying this many on the road and were an OT field goal away from continuing their long losing streak. What I like is the poorer play of the Giants D recently and that will allow the Broncos to earn the cover as a prime time home dog. Denver +6 for a 4* play.

A rare big fav but last week's results set up perfectly for it. Oakland caught Cincy at the perfect time and are now travelling on a short week after pulling the upset. Travelling off that kind of win for an inconsistent team is often a train wreck in the following week and it magnifies it with a short week and being a west coast team. The Dallas D has enough to seriously limit the Raiders while the Dallas running game is in a great spot to pound the Raiders and let this team make a statement in front of a national audience. Good running opens up the passing game and I think all this combined gets the Cowboys a lopsided win. Just one other note. After the Raider upset and the Dallas stinker last week, I really feel like the oddsmaker is laying a trap opening the Raiders as a 2 TD underdog. It's done a good job to split the action so far but there are reasons for every number that gets set. Take Dallas for a 3* regular play.

I was waiting to see if the Lions were playing games with Stafford and Johnson and it looks like they may have been as both are now slated to start. No doubt they're hurting but the Lions are taking this Thanksgiving Day very seriously and they'll fight hard now to lay an egg. Take Detroit +11 for a 3* regular play.

Other than the win vs the Giants, I don't think they've shown recently they have what it takes to be laying more than a FG on the road. Cutler tends to play his best at home, Philly's running game isn't great without Westbrook, and they are battling injury problems. I'm not a big fan of the Bears but I like them in this spot at home getting more than a FG. Bears +3.5 for a 3* Play.

Bulger is playing better and getting protection. Arizona is vulnerable on D, I'll take the points. 3*

A reverse line-move game with the public squarely on the Vikings. I like Seattle's potential to put up the cover with Hasselbeck playing very well recently. Seattle for a 3* play.

I think SF is in a good spot to fight hard. They've played hard on the road (3-0-1 ATS) including a recent tight loss vs Indy. I think they have enough D to take advantage of GB's O-line issues and have the potential to pull an outright upset. GB beat the Cowboys but I'm not convinced, especially laying the big number. Take the 49ers for a 3* Play.

An ugly pick but the Saints are a double-digit favorite and qualify as a go-against under the strongest ATS system I track. The Saints will put up 24+ but with their injuries on defense I don't think it will be enough to cover. Freeman is giving the Tampa offense life and he has the advantage of home field. This is also a reverse line move spot, with 67% of all bets on the Saints (public money) but the line has gone DOWN from -11.5 to -10.5. Seen this movie before. To cap it off, the Saints have won their last 3 as double digit favorites as in the case here but are 0-3 vs the spread. With a game vs the Patriots next week, I'll hold my nose and back the Bucs for a 4* Play.

KC dominated the last time they player but lost. Good spot for revenge. 3* KC

Too many points for Chicago to lay, especially with the line moving to -10. The Lions should have confidence for the first time in awhile and they have the ability to score. I expect them to fight hard and stay within the number. Take Detroit for a 3* play.

Nice home dog situation. A solid team and defense vs a public-loved team. Add in a proven NFL system that goes against road favs that won but failed to cover the previous week. Almost 80% of the public is hitting this one and it will probably increase on Monday as usual. But the line has moved DOWN from -3.5. Hmmm. We've seen this movie before and guess where the sharp money is landing. Take Miami +3 for a 3* play.

Giants have every chance to grab a S/U win here so I'll grab the +3. Take the NY Giants +3 for a 3* play.

Pittsburgh passing game is way ahead of their run game and Chicago can be had thru the air. Urlacher out hurts them overall. I expect more from Cutler this week and both D's (and special teams) can generate big plays and points. I'll play Over 38 for a 3* play.

Nice opporturtunity catching +6 with the Panthers. I definitely like respectable teams with an experienced QB after a week 1 blowout loss. Even better, the Panthers turned over the ball like crazy last week and the Falcons benefitted from a + turnover margin. That helps inflate the line and the public is all over the Falcons, in spite of an incredible history of bouncing back off bad games by Delhomme and the Panthers, especially as dogs. Take Carolina +6 for a 4* Play.

Detroit is a 10 point home dog in week 2? They didn't quit in the 2nd half of their game last week and Minnesota is going to run the ball and fantasy owners may not see much of AP in the 4th quarter. It's ugly but the line has been inflated to make up for 75% of bets pouring in on the Favre-led Vikings. I can see Detroit losing by 6 or 7 here. Hold your nose and take Detroit +10 for a 3* play.

San Fran is somewhat undervalued and has a good running game which could definitely come into play, especially early in the season. Take San Fran +6 for a 3* Play.

Jacksonville plays Indy tough and have been money on the road vs the Colts. New coach for Indy and laying big points in an opener is another red flag. Public all over the Colts is the clincher. Take Jacksonville +6.5 for a 4* Play.